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07/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Roy Oswalt puts on his Phillies uniform for the first time, he might have to check to make sure it is his name on the back of the jersey rather than what everyone in Philadelphia will be calling him for the rest of 2010.
Will "Not Cliff Lee" even fit on a jersey?
Oswalt has to be excited to go from a last-place club to one that is within arm's-reach of first place in the National League East, a Phillies team coming off back-to-back World Series appearances and figures to be the favorite to get to a third in a row now that they have added Oswalt from the Astros.
What the three-time All-Star won't be a fan of is the position he is in; that of replacing former fan favorite Lee, even if it is seven months after Lee left town. Oswalt can thank Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. for that awkwardness.
Amaro's decision to trade Lee, who was dominant for the Phillies after being acquired from the Indians before last year's non-waiver trade deadline, to Seattle in December was an unpopular one, even if it did get the club its current ace, Roy Halladay, from Toronto in the same four-team deal.
Amaro said that with Halladay, there could be no Lee. Philadelphia had given up too many prospects -- four to Cleveland in the original deal and another three to Toronto for Halladay -- and that shipping off Lee to the Mariners for Phillippe Aumont, Juan Ramirez and Tyson Gillies was designed to keep the team competitive for years to come by restocking the minor league system. He took this stance even knowing that a 2010 rotation of Halladay, Lee and Cole Hamels would have been perhaps the best in baseball.
Little has gone right for Amaro since.
Outside of Halladay and Hamels, the Phillies' rotation has been a mess, hindered by underperformance and injury. Joe Blanton has an earned run average just under six and Kyle Kendrick has tortured the Phils with inconsistency. J.A. Happ missed three months due to injury and veteran Jamie Moyer's 2010 season is over due to an elbow injury.
So you can imagine the uproar when word started to leak out that the Phillies were looking to add starting pitching help, a move that would certainly cost them some of their so-called minor league depth.
Even after Philadelphia acquired Oswalt, a 32-year-old righty with 143 wins and playoff experience, everyone continued to ask the same question: why didn't they just keep Lee?
"We can rehash this if you like," Amaro said on Thursday. "We had negotiations with Cliff. We were not comfortable he would be on our club past 2010. We designed a trade that would not only replenish our farm system, but would give us an opportunity to keep a No. 1 pitcher [Halladay] in our system beyond 2010.
He later added, "[With] this particular trade [for Oswalt], we have the ability under our terms to keep this No. 1 starter in our system not just for 2010, but in 2011 under our terms, and perhaps beyond that."
In Oswalt, Amaro sees redemption for not keeping Lee. In reality, all he has done is put an innocent outsider looking to win a title into the cross hairs of every Phillies fan who wanted to keep Lee.
If Oswalt losses a game 2-1, Lee would have won it 1-0. If Oswalt serves up a home run to center field, it would have been a pop up had Lee been on the mound.
Amaro, and by extension Oswalt, will be deemed failures if the Phillies don't capture their second title in three years. Imagine if Philadelphia battles the very capable Texas Rangers, Lee's new team, in the World Series and loses.
Lee's trade to the Rangers also made Amaro look bad, given the return the Mariners got for the future free agent. While Amaro netted a trio of prospects who have gotten lost in the system this year, the Mariners received Justin Smoak as part of the four-player package. Smoak, the 11th overall pick of the 2008 draft, was rated as Texas' second-best prospect by Baseball America and is already playing in the majors.
In Amaro's defense, the players he sent to the Astros for Oswalt -- Happ and minor leaguers Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar -- aren't going to make Phillies fans weep, especially considering Philadelphia reportedly got $11 million from Houston in the deal to offset some of the cost for Oswalt.
Still, the loss of Happ, a 27-year-old hurler with 12 wins and a 2.98 ERA in 31 career starts, seems to contradict Amaro's idea of young depth for the long haul. Had Amaro kept Lee, he would still have Happ, Hamels and Halladay and could have netted some compensation picks for losing Lee this offseason as a free agent.
What's done is done, however, and Amaro has still gotten himself a player that greatly increases Philadelphia's chances at getting back to the Fall Classic. Amaro just shouldn't expect that the move, in and of itself, constitutes total atonement.
<< Packers ink first-round pick Bulaga
Green Bay, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Green Bay Packers have signed first-round
draft pick Bryan Bulaga.
The Green Bay Press Gazette is reporting that the offensive lineman has signed
a five-year deal worth $14.75 million, with $8.76 million
<< Dolphins sign ex-Saints DE Grant
Davie, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Dolphins have signed defensive end
Charles Grant.
Terms of the deal were not released, but the Palm Beach Post reported
Wednesday that the contract is for two years and is worth $4.5 milli
<< Youzhny ousted in Gstaad quarters
Gstaad, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top seed Mikhail Youzhny was a
quarterfinal upset victim Friday at the Swiss Open Gstaad.
Qualifier Yuri Schukin upended his world No. 14 fellow Russian Youzhny 6-4,
2-6, 7-5 in 2 hours, 12
<< Revs searching for league success against Union
Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New England has won four straight games without
allowing a goal, but just one of those matches was in Major League Soccer. The
Revolution hope to build on their SuperLiga success in league play Saturday at
PPL Par
Celtic signs McCourt to new three-year contract >>
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Northern Ireland winger Paddy McCourt
signed a new three-year contract with Celtic on Friday.
McCourt, 26, had one year left on his current deal. He joined Celtic in 2008,
and has three goals in 19 a
Iupati joins Davis, Mays and Bowman as Niners picks to sign >>
Santa Clara, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Francisco 49ers completed the
signings of their 2010 draft class on Friday, as guard Mike Iupati followed
offensive tackle Anthony Davis, safety Taylor Mays and linebacker Navorro
Bowman,
Cardinals sign LB Washington >>
Tempe, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Cardinals have signed linebacker
Daryl Washington to a four-year contract, the team announced Friday. Financial
terms of the deal were not released.
Washington was Arizona's second-round pick, 47
Jets sign Ryan, Tannenbaum to extensions >>
Florham Park, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Jets announced Friday they
have signed head coach Rex Ryan and general manager Mike Tannenbaum to
contract extensions that will keep them with the club through the 2014 season.
Tann
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In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
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